People underestimate the role luck (or chance) plays in an individual’s life. Mark ZuckerbergMark Elliot ZuckerbergHillicon Valley: Senate panel votes to subpoena Big Tech executives | Amazon says over 19,000 workers tested positive for COVID-19 | Democrats demand DHS release report warning of election interference Senate panel votes to subpoena Big Tech executives Facebook takes down Trump campaign ads tying refugees to coronavirus MORE, Jeff BezosJeffrey (Jeff) Preston BezosSenate panel votes to subpoena Big Tech executives Privacy, civil rights groups demand transparency from Amazon on election data breaches NASA’s Bridenstine: We really are going to the lunar south pole MORE and Bill Gates are brilliant and accomplished, but more than a little good luck has helped them. Sergey Brin and Larry Page almost sold Google for $1 million (it’s now worth nearly $1 trillion).
And so it is with Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpJaime Harrison debates Graham
Napoleon famously remarked that he would rather his generals be lucky than good, and it’s something that a recent study from the University of Catania explored, with the researchers attempting to understand the role luck played in our success. They did this by modeling human talent, and specifically how that talent is used by us through our lives. This allowed them to understand the role chance played in our outcomes.
They ran a number of simulations to explore the distribution of wealth and talent and found that it generally wasn’t the most talented that came to be wealthiest, but rather those who were regarded as the luckiest. The model worked by assigning people a given level of talent, which consisted of things such as intelligence and skill. This talent would be randomly assigned throughout the population according to a broad bell curve distribution.